Do you think Amazon will catch Apple in total revenue to become the next trillion dollar company?

Revenue is irrelevant to valuation. This question makes the assumption that revenue is relevant to valuation. They are completely unrelated.

  • Valuation is based on what the stock market speculates you are worth or more realistically, what you will be worth in the future. Apple is chronically undervalued and as a result, it won't be hard for other companies with worse fundamentals to pass it in value. If investors think a company will be worth more in the future, they might be valued more on the stock market, regardless of what their revenue or profit are.
  • Apple makes more in a quarter than Amazon has in their entire 20 year history. Revenue aside, Amazon simply doesn't pull in the profit that Apple does and likely never will. Apple is still growing and growing faster than Amazon. Amazon only recently started pulling a profit and most of that comes from Amazon Web Services (AWS) and they have a lot of competition in that area.
  • Amazon will likely pass Apple at some point because Amazon is overvalued (their valuation should probably be about $500 billion or so at most) and Apple is undervalued (their valuation should be closer to $2 trillion ), but the stock market is notoriously wrong about valuations, so reality doesn't necessarily reflect in their values. Remember when Apple's stock tanked in the spring on reports that iPhone X was selling poorly? Remember then it jumped like crazy when it sold incredibly well? Investors are pretty poor in general about assessing value, but when it comes to Amazon and Apple they are especially bad.

So Amazon will likely pass Apple at some point or at least reach $1 trillion on their own, revenue has nothing to do with it, and the stock market goes crazy with valuations.

Footnotes

Warren Buffett Betting That Apple Is Worth $2 Trillion: Whitney Tilson


I think we can count on Amazon not only meeting the trillion dollar mark, but soon leaving Apple in their dust. Apple doesn't have a product pipeline. Nothing new at all. They're counting on revenues from their old products breaking to make their numbers. Does that sound sustainable to you?


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