How has Ebola affected the demographics of West Africa?The answer isn't very easy, but here goes. I will focus exclusively on the three countries of most-intense transmission: Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea.
1. The population of Sierra Leone is 6.19M; Guinea 10M, Liberia 4M, for an approximate total of 20.19M.
2. The total dead from Ebola in the 3 countries with the most intense transmission is 8,818.
3. Total infected from Ebola in those three countries to date is 22,101.
How this affects demographics in the county is as follows:
- Ebola has produced an overall death rate of 0.043%, or 1 in 2,289.
- Unicef estimates Ebola created about 11,000 orphans in West Africa. That's 0.054% of the overall population; about 1 in 1,835 persons; it would be about 0.12%, or 1 in 789 of the approximately 8.68M children in the affected countries, given that ~43% of these countries are age 0-14.*
- Ebola's infection rate is 0.1%, or about 1 in 914; these people will be sero-immune; free to further infection from Ebola. Furthermore, these people can donate their blood, to potentially provide immunity to others.
Ebola has not yet been fully contained. The current rate of infection is about 67 new cases and 32 deaths every day. This is down from its peak of infectiousness, which occurred between 17-24 December. During that week, there were 127 new cases and 96 deaths every day.
* Ages 0-14: Guinea: 42.9%, Liberia: 43.5%, Sierra Leone: 43%
One amendment: the total number of infected includes those living and dead. Subtracting out those who died will produce a smaller number of persons who survive with sero-immunity. However, we have yet to know how many will ultimately survive. Right now, the percentage of those who die, where a definitive outcome is known, was cited as 71%. However, WHO has recently backed away from providing this statistic. If this death rate holds up as true over the long run, then there will be far less than half of those infected who will survive and be immune.
- Ebola Casualty Analysis - 28 Jan 2015
- Ebola response roadmap - Situation report (29 Jan 2015 figures)
- Ebola Has Left More Than 11,000 Children Orphaned In West Africa
- Demographics of Guinea
- Demographics of Liberia
- Demographics of Sierra Leone