What is going to happen to our civilization in the next 100 years based on the behavior of humans today?
It's unclear. All that I'm confident saying is that we're approaching a crossroads of destiny-the point at which we take one of three roads. Those roads are ruin, Orwellian oligarchy, and evolutionary societies.
Obviously, the first is horrific and the second is something most of us would abhor. The third is something new. Evolutionary societies would embody systems of sustainable technological abundance, based on best available evidence. They would take Silicon Valley principles for the disruption of industries and apply them at the level of society itself, guided by consensually derived values. (Imagine a 21st century Singapore, without its limitations.)
Fascism is rising, whether called communism, nationalism, or something else. It offers a comfortable, illusory security in troubled times. Orwell saw the completion of fascism, and it could happen.
Climate change and technological unemployment are profound threats, rising like a tsunami. Governments can institute a sustainable, viable UBI called MOUBI right away, offsetting the worst effects of accelerating automation. Likewise, technologies such as Diamonds from the Sky, which could be massively deployed for carbon capture and dialed down when necessary, will soon be ready.
Humanity needs a hopeful vision of tomorrow, based not on politics but science and technology. I've tried to provide one in my book, A Celebration Society. Others also have sought to do this. We need to start simulating and testing such models ASAP.
I have seen countries facing global calamities make changes to prevent further damage to the climate. This gives me hope that our civilization will grow and flourish in the next 100 years.
If the atmosphere in the US becomes more divisive and totally unconcerned about the damage being done today to our climate and resources, we will not be part of that outcome.
The US could end up being a pariah country that is totally isolated from the rest of the world, economically and every other way imaginable. This could set the timetable on future civilization back 100 years instead of moving forward.
Right now it is a crap shoot on how it turns out. It could go either way. If our civilization goes south, most fingers would be pointing in the direction of the US as being the main culprit.
Thanks for the A2A.
Massive global civilization collapse. Just going by human behavior today, one might think that humanity would never recover, but the reintroduction of harsh selective pressure will alter the behavior of humans to more closely resemble that of a naturally fit species.
As it happens, factors external to human behavior (current or after natural selective pressure) will lead to a surprising number of the essential elements of our civilization being incorporated into the recovery. But most of the elements that are distinctive to modernity will be eliminated entirely.
Continued evolution. Third world countries will gradually improve their economies and and standard of living. Some major powers will decline. Other powers will rise. There will probably be lots of minor wars and several major conflicts, but as the world economy becomes dominant over national economies armed conflict will diminish as nations become heavily interdependent. Humanity will continue to survive and thrive despite its mistakes.
I suspect that the liberal societies will disapear. I don't think liberal societies are stable. I am liberal and *want* liberalism and rationality to keep guiding us. But I can't see how liberalism can withstand attack from true believers.