What were to happen if China were to forcibly annex Mongolia right now?
I think there are two different issues PRC would face if that happens.
- Certain show of military might end the conflict without dropping blood. But Mongolia certainly would go for guerilla warfare. Adding more fuel to the already unstable PRC. They mostly use force to keep their country united and adding another super unsteady region won't do any good in that. The general view of Mongolian public is very hostile to Chinese so PRC will face some serious challenges from the people of Mongolia. They could use the same strategy they used on Inner Mongolians, which is flooding of millions of families into the area and in time, real Mongolians could fade into the huge population that is moved in. PRC's propaganda machine will get busy, it will take time but it's effective, as we clearly can see its result from some of the answers we find here(Like stating Mongolia is Chinese territory). Financially, it would be very expensive and time consuming operation but China can afford it. Inner Mongolia, Uighur, Tibet and Taiwan are all unstable and they rather go on their own given any chance. Now, Mongolia is annexed and a gruesome conflict is ongoing in here. The whole lot of PRC will be unsettled.
- I assume forcibly annexing means they didn't do it without bargaining with Russia because under any circumstances, Russia won't let China annex Mongolia without a deal. This deal has to be expensive for Chinese because this will put Russia in a very disadvantageous position. Both Russia and China are now currently facing similar, rather uncomfortable relationship with the West which leaves them no choice but cooperation. This will change when China annexes Mongolia. Russia will never accept it unless they made a deal beforehand. Again, the deal will be very expensive for China. So, Russia now have no choice but condemn China and side with the West. UN, NATO, USA all will condemn China's actions but their economy is somewhat dependent on China and wise-versa. Sanctions will be imposed only this time, Russia is doing the same. It will be ugly. PRC can expect some difficult times ahead. Especially when two biggest nuclear forces are opposing your geopolitical actions.
Well, it is better for you to understand that Mongolia was a part of China in history.
Mongolia was divided into out Mongolia and inner Mongolia mainly because of Russia in modern history.
Refer to your question, I think you mean annex out Mongolia. This situation won't happen, I think. It is not good for China to get back out Mongolia from economic and politic aspect.
A2A Tom Jerry
In the real world, Trump has a greater chance to become the most popular and loved president in history than China forcibly annexing Mongolia.
But let's suggest this scenario happens somehow in a parallel universe. The first thing that follows would be an outraged Russia moving its land forces to Russia-China borders, and demanding China to return all Mongolian territories immediately. Since China has annexed Mongolia by force, I presume it won't let go of it easily. Then a Russia-China war can be expected.
Meanwhile the global society would have different responses. European countries would feel relieved cause Russia's attention is drawn from them. USA would be the happiest because they are far from the conflict zone and once again they can fish in the troubled waters. Japan and Korea would feel quite anxious because they are too close to the two angry giants, being worldly-wise and play safe is no longer easy.
Despite all this, the world should rest assured. A total war between China and Russia would finally become a nuclear war, and that might cost the destruction of the entire human civilization. Let me think of what would happen next, hmmm, Tom Cat and Jerry Rat dancing on our graves?
Beautiful! Somebody please make a movie out of this plot.
Some very stern words from Trump and other world leaders with the UN having lots of crises meetings, maybe some limited sanctions on China but not enough to hurt the World economy.
As China is getting close to a World super power trying to force them out wouldn't be wise but as World resources and trade to develop are important to China restricting them these would start to bite.
New markets would be developed to resupply the World with the loss of Chinese goods.
China wouldn't want that long term so they would need to withdraw to restore stability in the world.
That would never happen in real world as China already has the resources it need from the Mongolia region within its territory and it doesn't need another problem similar to the Uighur in its northern border.
Mongolia started off as a satellite nation of the Soviet Union and has been "hostile" to PRC since it's founding due to Mongolian nationalism and heavy Soviet influence in its government. The break up of USSR meant Mongolia can't rely on Russia for economic support and China became its largest trading partner ever since. Even so, old prejudices die hard and with Russia still influential in the government, social and cultural aspects of Mongolia, China will face big problem in trying to manage the country should it decided to annex Mongolia. The return of Taiwan to PRC territory has a higher priority than taking Mongolia into Chinese territory.