What would have happened in World War II if Hitler didn't try to invade the Soviet Union?
The Nazis would've won WW2, straight and simple, and probably would later defeat the Soviet Union as well(considering that without Germany invading the USSR, the Soviets would be the ones trying it).
You have to see the scenario in which Hitler attacked the USSR:
-France was completely beaten and occupied
-England was very obviously going to be defeated, all that was left to do was to win the Second Front so the British navy would run of out of oil. To put it simple, only a matter of time, in fact, England was so defeated that Hitler was bombing London and other towns daily to torture them.
-The US was only threatening to start a war against Japan(because of them taking advantage of the war in Europe to conquer weaker nations of Asia) and wasn't in war with the Germans yet.
So, I think the Nazis would destroy England and, assuming Stalin would be the one attacking, he would be completely humiliated, the Red Army was one of the most incompetent armies back then, the sole reason they won was because of the Soviet Winter, Stalin would not have the defending advantage and wouldn't have the favoring geography.
Also, had Hitler not attacked the Soviet Union, it's likely that they would have made "peace" with America, there's no advantage of a conflict between the two.
Where else would they have gone? Maybe south to Africa, and then east around Turkey? Eventually, they would have had to fight the Soviet Union. As it was, they came within a razor thin margin of beating Stalin. Forward German units, including one commanded by Hans von Luck, actually drove into Moscow for reconnaissance without encountering much resistance.
The war is full of "what-ifs" but if Germany had waited too long to attack, Stalin might have wised up sooner and stopped slaughtering his own generals long enough to build a proper army that might have actually stopped the Germans early in any later invasion.
The Germans clearly mis-managed the scope of the invasion and the vastness of the Soviet Union. Their rapid assualts could not be sustained because of the logisitics. They depended on trains to move supplies but every single train line in the Soviet Union was a different guage than the German trains, so every single rail had to be manually moved to accommodate the German trains. The Germans never standardized on a four-wheel drive truck, and this absolutely killed them. The Opel Blitz that was the workhorse of the German Army was a rear-wheel drive only and as it was, the Germans built only about 100,000 of them, compared to the Americans who built 800,000 2-1/2 ton trucks during the same period. It's been estimated that German troops on the frontlines received maybe 10 percent of the supplies they needed and were always wanting. It turns out that tanks are both hard to kill and hard to keep running, so logistics was an important consideration and the Germans standardized on very little, the result being that there was always too much of what they didn't need and not enough of what they did need. I am always absolutely amazed at the achievement of the German supply system that it held up as well as it did despite rail bombardments, lack of mobility and so on. It's a tribute to the dedication of the men who ran it.
So war with the Soviets was inevitable. But in the end, it wouldn't have mattered. No war with the USSR probably meant more war with England and possibly America. We might assume that England would have been invaded by 1942 at enormous cost, and no guarantee of success, since that fat moron Goering was still in charge of the air force and the sub fleet was still quite small. It's possible the Soviets and Germany would have divided Finland. It's likely Germany would have thrown England out of all of North Africa and Malta, and possibly captured Morocco and Gibralta.
Eventually, America would have come into the war and inevitably the US would have the A-bomb and instead of Japan, Fat Man and Little Boy would have leveled Berlin and Kiel or Hamburg (Naval/Sub bases) and the war would have ended with a mad dash by the Soviets to seize most of Europe, something we would not be in a position to stop. It's likely that the USSR would have swept to the coast and all of Europe would have been behind the Iron Curtain. Maybe then, we would have attacked Moscow with nuclear weapons if they didn't pull back to some arbitrary line and Europe would end up looking much as it did after the war.
That's the beauty of "what-ifs" -- anything is possible.
For one thing, the Nazi economy would have lasted a bit longer. At full wartime footing, Germany was racing through its mineral and other raw material reserves. The Soviets were supplying much of this across the border.
One minor point here that I always found amusing: The standard rail gage was different between Poland and Russia, so the materials had to be detrained and reloaded up to German trains. As a result, there was quite the depot on the border that was captured by the Nazis as they launched Barbarossa.
Germany was locked in by friendly neutrals at this point, namely Spain to the south-west, Turkey to the south-east, and the USSR to the east. They were strongest in their ground forces, which were less than helpful for countering the British Navy. As Talleyrand said, you can do anything with a bayonet except sit on it.
Likely, Germany would have had the logistical ability to beef up Rommel's corp in the Libya/Egypt campaign, which might even have resulted in the capture of the Suez and the collapse of the British Middle East position. If this had happened and the canal was fortified by the Nazis, then the British logistical route would have been crippled, adding thousands of miles of sea travel to the supply lines from India, all of which were at least somewhat vulnerable to U-Boat attacks. Brits without their tea are cranky beasts, so one might pity the Nazis had they been able to accomplish this.
However, it's quite likely that within a year of when Barbarossa was launched that Stalin would have set the USSR to invade Nazi Germany anyway, after seeing that megalomaniac attack everyone else he shared borders with. Stalin was just stuck in a rock and a hard place from 1937 until about 1942, since he had purged the USSR general staff and proved to the world the incompetence of the Soviet military during the Winter War with Finland.
Nazi Germany and the USSR were going to war eventually. It was just a question of when.
I believe that, eventually, the USSR would have invaded Germany. There's some serious debate on this, but it's well known that -- at least -- "visionary" invasion plans were devised by the USSR at Stalin's behest. These may never have achieved fruition (like the recently disclosed American plans to invade Canada, etc.), but Stalin never trusted Hitler (why would he?) and the Soviets did want domination of Europe.
I believe if Germany would have never invaded the USSR, they would likely have remained at peace until US/British forces eventually began turning the tide against Germany. The War would have dragged on a full year or two longer, likely until 1947. By 1945, the Germans would have been in retreat in North Africa. They never had nor would have had the war materiel to cross the English Channel, but Britain would have taken a serious pounding.
I believe, seeing the winds of change and wanting to get its piece of the pie AND having seriously armed from the outset of the war (1939), the Soviets would have felt "ready enough" to enter the war and occupy the Eastern nations in Europe. Germany would still have been defeated and the Soviets would still have occupied the nations near her western borders.
I'll quote Wikipedia on this one:
The battles on the Eastern Front constituted the largest military confrontation in history.
The Eastern Front was decisive in determining the outcome of World War II, eventually serving as the main reason for Germany's defeat.
The Eastern Front was the largest and bloodiest theatre of World War II.
The German armed forces suffered 80% of its military deaths in the Eastern Front.
It seems to me that it's extremely hard to speculate what would have happened to Nazi Germany, once we take away 80% of all its military deaths during the war.
Short Answer:-Well they would've still lost the war.
For those who write that they would've won is completely Rubbish.
Let me Explain
First we have to ask ourself why Germany attacked Soviet Union in the first place?
Well,For many of us because of Hitler's Lebensraum in the East,which is wrong
The main reasons for the invasion were :-
- Fertile Land
- Eliminate a Weak Red Army which had a potential of becoming strong in future with vast amount resources,manpower and considerable amount of Industrial capacity.(they were weak due to the great purge)
Germany conquered most of the Europe and lost the battle of Britain which was Bad for the Germans war effort. It seems reasonable for battle of Britain but how the conquered part is bad for the Germans since it provide more Industrial capacity ,land and resources
Well,it is due to there Logistical and Resource problem(Not Iron or Steel but it was due to Oil).Germany had to stretch their Transport units to France,Yugoslavia,Poland,Belgium and other European countries to send supplies to their Garrison troops and to the local population as well(They are still humans BTW),Which consume more than 3 times the fuel in 1938.So,it was a problem for the Germans.
Now, the second question,If the Germans needed resources(mainly crude oil) for their war effort why didn't they just invade middle east and through north Africa
and why the soviet union?.
Well,it is due to the fact that middle east didn't produces that much crude oil in 1940(comparable to German war effort
just look at it,
USA 182.657 Mt USSR 29.700 Mt Venezuela 27.443 Mt Iran 10.426 Mt Indonesia 7.939 Mt Mexico 6.721 Mt Romania 5.764 Mt Columbia 3.636 Mt Iraq 3.438 Mt Argentina 2.871 Mt Trinidad 2.844 Mt Peru 1.776 Mt Burma 1.088 Mt Canada 1.082 Mt Egypt 0.929 Mt
millions of metric tons of crude oil produced for the whole year(1940)
Oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938,
Now, U couldn't take oil from these countries due to :-
- North America and South America-→British Navy
- Burma,Egypt and Indonesia--->were colonies of Britain and Netherlands.
Now, remains USSR,Iraq,Iran and Romania and Egypt(could be invaded through Italian North African colony).
- Egypt:- well the Germans could've take the field but it wasn't enough( only 0.9 Mt) and can't be transfered through Mediterranean sea(British navy).
- Iran and Iraq:- Germans were already trading with them and they couldn't be invaded Why ? , because invasion of Turkey wasn't feasible (same with case of Switzerland).you couldn't invade middle east through north Africa. Due to Suez canal and again due to the British Navy.